Assessment of three temperature reconstruction methods in the virtual reality of a climate simulation     

Hans von Storch  Eduardo Zorita  Fidel González-Rouco 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2009,98(1):67-82

The performance of statistical climate reconstruction methods in the pre-instrumental period is uncertain, as they are calibrated in a short instrumental period but applied to much longer reconstructions time spans. Here, the virtual reality created by a climate simulation of the past millennium with the model ECHO-G is used as a test bed of three methods to reconstruct the annual Northern Hemisphere temperature. The methods are Composite plus Scaling, the inverse regression method of Mann et al. (Nature 392:779–787, 1998) and a direct principal-components regression method. The testing methodology is based on the construction of pseudo-proxies derived from the climate model output, the application of each of these methods to pseudo-proxy timeseries, and the comparison of their result with the simulated mean temperature. Different structures of the noise have been used to construct pseudo-proxies, ranging from the simulated grid-point precipitation. Also, one sparse and one denser pseudo-proxy network, co-located with two real networks, have been considered. All three methods underestimate the simulated variations of the Northern Hemisphere temperature, but the Composite plus Scaling method clearly displays a better performance and is robust against the different noise models and network size. The most relevant factor determining the skill of the reconstruction appears to be the network size, whereas the different noise models tend to yield similar results.  相似文献   

Numerical relationships between magnetic parameters measured in Quaternary sediments and global paleoclimatic proxies     

Alfredo Peralta  Vincenzo Costanzo-Alvarez  Eduardo Carrillo  Leonardo Evert Durán  Milagrosa Aldana  Daniel Rey 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2013,57(4):647-668

The complexity of most geological and geophysical problems prompts sometimes the use of non linear mathematical methods to handle them. An adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) that combines fuzzy logic with neural networks, is applied here to study a paleoclimate section from the Quaternary sedimentary fill of the Lake Mucubají (western Venezuela). The purpose of this work is to find a set of numerical relationships that could predict the possible connections between oxygen isotope (δ¹⁸O) values from two different locations in the northern hemisphere (Ammersee in southern Germany and an ice core from the Greenland Ice Core Project — GRIP) and rock-magnetic parameters measured in Mucubají samples (i.e. mass-specific magnetic susceptibility — χ, magnetic remanence S-ratio, mass-specific saturation isothermal remanent magnetization — SIRM and anhysteretic remanent magnetization — ARM). The best inferences in terms of coefficient of determionation R² and the Root Mean-Square Error (RMSE) are obtained using those magnetic data as input that include information about magnetite grain size distributions, e.g., SIRM and ARM in FIS structures [1χ, 4ARM] and [4ARM, 1SIRM]. A comparison between Ammersee and GRIP actual data, as well as their corresponding inferences for the FIS structure [4ARM, 1SIRM], reveals a reasonable good inference of global trends for both records, overlooking the regional and/or local paleoclimate forcings that might have affected Ammersee. A better correlation between global isotope paleoclimate records and magnetic proxies, is perhaps prevented by the role played by local and regional paleoclimate and tectonism in Mucubají. We also argue that the ratio of ARM over SIRM appears to be related in a complex way to the onset and to the end of the Younger Dryas. Our novel approach to the assessment of a specific paleoclimate case study shows the potential of the ANFIS technique in solving problems where traditional univariate and multivariate linear regression methods could prove inadequate.  相似文献   

Evaporation from shallow groundwater in closed basins in the Chilean Altiplano   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Eduardo Johnson  José Yáñez  Cristian Ortiz 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):624-635

Abstract

The hydrological cycle in arid and semi-arid climates is highly controlled by evaporation. The correct quantification of this process is essential for improving the accuracy of water balance estimates, especially in closed basins. The objective of this paper is to characterize evaporation rates from shallow groundwater using the chamber approach in six closed basins in the Altiplano of northern Chile. Measurements were made at 49 locations with water-table depths ranging from 0.09 m to 3.3 m. Estimated daily evaporation rates appeared to be strongly related to groundwater depth and soil texture. In particular, the highest rates were recorded in areas with high groundwater tables and coarse-grained soils. Evaporation curves were derived by fitting exponential and power relationships as functions of the groundwater depths that we proposed to use in the study area. An application of these curves for the Salar de Pedernales basin produced an estimated evaporation flow of 530 L s^-1, using the average curve.

Citation Johnson, E., Yáñez, J., Ortiz, C. & Muñoz, J. (2010) Evaporation from shallow groundwater in closed basins in the Chilean Altiplano. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(4), 624–635.  相似文献   

Integrating lysimeter drainage and eddy covariance flux measurements in a groundwater recharge model     

Vicente Vásquez  Anton Thomsen  Bo V. Iversen  Rasmus Jensen  Rasmus Ringgaard 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(9):1520-1537

Abstract

Field-scale water balance is difficult to characterize because controls exerted by soils and vegetation are mostly inferred from local-scale measurements with relatively small support volumes. Eddy covariance flux and lysimeters have been used to infer and evaluate field-scale water balances because they have larger footprint areas than local soil moisture measurements. This study quantifies heterogeneity of soil deep drainage (D) in four 12.5-m² repacked lysimeters, compares evapotranspiration from eddy covariance (ET_EC) and mass balance residuals of lysimeters (ETwb_Lys), and models D to estimate groundwater recharge. Variation in measured D was attributed to redirection of snowmelt infiltration and differences in lysimeter hydraulic properties caused by surface soil treatment. During the growing seasons of 2010, 2011 and 2012, ETwb_Lys (278, 289 and 269 mm, respectively) was in good agreement with ET_EC (298, 301 and 335 mm). Annual recharge estimated from modelled D was 486, 624 and 613 mm for three calendar years 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively. In summary, lysimeter D and ET_EC can be integrated to estimate and model groundwater recharge.